Barack Obama Should Play It Safe, Delay Plans to Run for Presidency
By Alessio Manti ‘08
News Reporter
With with this past Tuesday’s elections now a matter of history, candidates all over the country are already gearing up for another intense battle of red and blue—an event that could very well shape the direction of politics for the next few years. The 2006 midterm elections are only an irritating and less exciting subplot to a greater odyssey: the 2008 presidential elections.
If early indications are an accurate prediction of the future, the important candidates to watch in 2008 will be the moderates. Republican John McCain is planning on running for the 2008 nomination, and several other center-leaning candidates have sprung up from the ranks of the Democrats (or, at least, some left-leaning candidates have toned down their liberalism in an effort to gain wider popularity.)
Of these potential candidates, one man in particular stands out from the crowd: Barack Obama, the multi-racial senator of Illinois. Renouncing his former stance of “undecided for 2008”, Obama recently declared that he would seriously consider the possibility of running for president.
Obama is easily the most widely supported moderate for the Democratic nomination, pseudo-moderates not included. In a recent MSNBC poll, 73% of those polled said that they thought Obama should run for president, and 63% said that they would consider voting for him. With what seems to be strong support from America’s Democratic youth and the ability to garner a wider following than most Democrats, Obama certainly has a chance to win the Democratic nomination.
But if Obama and the Democratic Party plan to make provisions for the future, they ought to carefully assess the situation. Most alarming is the risk that Obama could head down a path similar to that taken by John Edwards in 2004. John Edwards appeared to be a promising presidential candidate, but then committed political suicide by running unnecessarily early. In order to be eligible to receive a nomination, Edwards officially retired from the Senate. Yet his subsequent, unexpected loss left Edwards out of public office—and he has remained politically unemployed since. Once you become a loser in the American eye, it is very, very hard to shake off your damaged reputation.
Like Edwards, Obama is a young, relatively moderate Democrat who is popular among American youth. Like Edwards had in 2004, Obama will have only completed his first term as a senator before seeking the presidential nomination.
Running as a relatively new senator can be a risky move—many people perceive young candidates as necessarily inexperienced. As a result, voters are often reluctant to choose a newcomer over a veteran senator or governor. The same reasoning applies to presidential elections involving an incumbent. Incumbents are by default more likely to win a presidential election because the voting public tends to be favor the ‘safer,’ more established politician. With age occasionally comes wisdom. Consequently, it may be safer for Mr. Obama to wait to run until 2012 (assuming that the Democrats lose in 2008) or 2016 (assuming that the Democrats win in 2008 and the incumbent runs again in 2012). In the meantime, Obama ought to settle for vice presidency or even seek out another cabinet position in order to firmly establish himself as a well-known and trusted government official—and so increase his chances for future victory.
Political experience aside, would Republicans even be willing to vote Democratic if a moderate won the nomination? Many Democrats may be willing to vote for a moderate Republican, but the same may not be true of the GOP—especially if the candidate is a Democrat from the North.
The last northern Democratic candidate to win presidency was John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts in 1966. Since then, all of the Democratic presidents voted into office have been from the South. In general, Southern voters have often found it difficult to identify with northern Democrats simply because such candidates are alien to both Southern’ Democrats’ political domain and their social realm. What distinguishes a southern Democratic moderate from a northern one is that the former understands and appreciates the southern belief-system in a way that the latter cannot. It’s simply a matter of being able to personally identify with the candidate. What more, traditionalists are by definition less accepting of progressive candidates than liberals are of conservative ones. Northern Democrats have historically not been popular enough in the South to easily take the presidency; the same may be true for Barack Obama.
Finally, there is that elephant of a question: is America ready for a multi-racial president? Surprisingly, questions about Obama’s race have been few and far between—unlike the media coverage of Al Sharpton’s 2004 candidacy. Rather, questions regarding Obama’s candidacy have focused on whether a moderate Democrat will be able to take the presidency or even defeat Hillary Clinton in a primary. However, neither of these prospects are very likely because, as far as our country has come in terms of eliminating racism, America remains unready for a minority president. Though blacks and other minorities have begun to play a larger role in American politics, their numbers have yet to reflect their actual numbers in the population.
Until minorities secure a larger, steadier presence in regional and White House cabinets, it is unlikely that a minority will be elected commander-in-chief. Look at the midterm races for the Senate: Harold Ford Jr. ran to become the South’s first black Senator since the Reconstruction Era. With a large portion of the country unwilling and unready to vote for a black president, a race for that office may be extremely difficult for Obama. Even if Obama were only combating the issue of his race, he would still have an uphill battle to fight. If the Democrats want to ensure “easy electability” for 2008, running a black moderate Democrat from the North still in his first term in the Senate would not be the best of moves.
So, Mr. Obama, if you are planning on running for the nomination in 2008, and if you’re reading The News this week, wait to declare your intentions until those around you have declared their own. If the pieces don’t fall into place, then don’t force your run. Wait for another year, or try to get a place in a Democrat’s cabinet. But above all, don’t put everything on the line for a candidacy that you can’t win—for that would certainly be a disappointment to all of us who have grown tired of the partisan American political system.
